TY - JOUR
T1 - Probability bootstrapping
T2 - Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments
AU - Osherson, Daniel
AU - Shafir, Eldar
AU - Krantz, David H.
AU - Smith, Edward E.
N1 - Funding Information:
Research support was provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation Contract 21-32399.91 to D. Osherson, by U.S. Public Health Service Grant 1-R29-MH46885 from NIMH to E. Shafir, and by Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Contract AFOSR-92-0265 to E. E. Smith. We thank Jennifer Cyr for expertly performing the experiments reported herein. Two anonymous reviewers provided excellent comments that improved the paper. Address correspondence and reprint requests to David H. Krantz, Department of Psychology, 406 Schermerhorn Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027. E-mail: [email protected].
PY - 1997/1
Y1 - 1997/1
N2 - We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.
AB - We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0038089397&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0038089397&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1006/obhd.1996.2668
DO - 10.1006/obhd.1996.2668
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0038089397
SN - 0749-5978
VL - 69
SP - 1
EP - 8
JO - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
JF - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
IS - 1
ER -