Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments

Daniel Osherson; Eldar Shafir; David H. Krantz; Edward E. Smith

doi:10.1006/obhd.1996.2668

Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments

Daniel Osherson, Eldar Shafir, David H. Krantz, Edward E. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1-8
Number of pages	8
Journal	Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume	69
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.2668
State	Published - Jan 1 1997

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Applied Psychology
Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management

Access to Document

10.1006/obhd.1996.2668

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this

Osherson, D., Shafir, E., Krantz, D. H., & Smith, E. E. (1997). Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.2668

@article{5a2ea2bd184a43cfb3aabe26458cc7e6,

title = "Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments",

abstract = "We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.",

author = "Daniel Osherson and Eldar Shafir and Krantz, {David H.} and Smith, {Edward E.}",

year = "1997",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1006/obhd.1996.2668",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "69",

pages = "1--8",

journal = "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes",

issn = "0749-5978",

publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Probability bootstrapping

T2 - Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments

AU - Osherson, Daniel

AU - Shafir, Eldar

AU - Krantz, David H.

AU - Smith, Edward E.

PY - 1997/1/1

Y1 - 1997/1/1

N2 - We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.

AB - We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0038089397&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0038089397&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1006/obhd.1996.2668

DO - 10.1006/obhd.1996.2668

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0038089397

VL - 69

SP - 1

EP - 8

JO - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

JF - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

SN - 0749-5978

IS - 1

ER -