Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments

Daniel Osherson, Eldar Shafir, David H. Krantz, Edward E. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-8
Number of pages8
JournalOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume69
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1997

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Applied Psychology
  • Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this