@article{5a2ea2bd184a43cfb3aabe26458cc7e6,
title = "Probability bootstrapping: Improving prediction by fitting extensional models to knowledgeable but incoherent probability judgments",
abstract = "We propose a simple method for choosing a probability distribution as an approximation to a set of incoherent probability judgments. In two different domains we demonstrate that the resulting (coherent) probability estimates come closer to the observed relative frequencies than do the original incoherent judgments.",
author = "Daniel Osherson and Eldar Shafir and Krantz, {David H.} and Smith, {Edward E.}",
note = "Funding Information: Research support was provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation Contract 21-32399.91 to D. Osherson, by U.S. Public Health Service Grant 1-R29-MH46885 from NIMH to E. Shafir, and by Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Contract AFOSR-92-0265 to E. E. Smith. We thank Jennifer Cyr for expertly performing the experiments reported herein. Two anonymous reviewers provided excellent comments that improved the paper. Address correspondence and reprint requests to David H. Krantz, Department of Psychology, 406 Schermerhorn Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027. E-mail: dhk@columbia.edu.",
year = "1997",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1006/obhd.1996.2668",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "69",
pages = "1--8",
journal = "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes",
issn = "0749-5978",
publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",
number = "1",
}