Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US

Sang Woo Park, Kevin Messacar, Daniel C. Douek, Alicen B. Spaulding, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number100736
JournalEpidemics
Volume46
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2024

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Parasitology
  • Microbiology

Keywords

  • COVID- 19
  • Enterovirus D68
  • Non-pharmaceutical intervention
  • infectious disease moeling

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