Predicting shifts in the functional composition of tropical forests under increased drought and CO₂ from trade-offs among plant hydraulic traits

Tropical forest responses are an important feedback on global change, but changes in forest composition with projected increases in CO₂ and drought are highly uncertain. Here we determine shifts in the most competitive plant hydraulic strategy (the evolutionary stable strategy or ESS) from changes in CO₂ and drought frequency and intensity. Hydraulic strategies were defined along a spectrum from drought avoidance to tolerance by physiology traits. Drought impacted competition more than CO₂, with elevated CO₂ reducing but not reversing drought-induced shifts in the ESS towards more tolerant strategies. Trait plasticity and/or adaptation intensified these shifts by increasing the competitive ability of the drought tolerant relative to the avoidant strategies. These findings predict losses of drought avoidant evergreens from tropical forests under global change, and point to the importance of changes in precipitation during the dry season and constraints on plasticity and adaptation in xylem traits to forest responses.