Predictability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in the GFDL coupled model

We explore the predictability of the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM) at a three-season lead, within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled general circulation model (CGCM). In both control simulations and retrospective forecasts of the 1990's in the CGCM, we find that the occurrence of some IODZM events is preconditioned by oceanic conditions and potentially predictable three seasons in advance, while other IODZM events appear to be triggered by weather noise and have low predictability. The results highlight the necessity for future studies to distinguish periods when the IODZM is more or less predictable and search for its precursory pattern in the ocean.