Policy Effects on Mixed-Citizenship, Same-Sex Unions: A Triple-Difference Analysis

After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in 2013, same-sex partners of U.S. citizens became eligible for spousal visas. Since then, the United States has seen a rapid rise in same-sex, mixed-citizenship couples. However, this effect varies greatly depending on the lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) policy context of the noncitizen's country of origin. Using waves 2008-2019 of the American Community Survey, this study employs a triple-difference design to examine how the policy environment of the origin country moderates the effect of the end of DOMA on incidence of mixed-citizenship, same-sex couples in the United States. Quasi-Poisson models with two-way fixed effects show that, after 2013, individuals in mixed-citizenship, same-sex couples coming from countries with progressive LGB policies saw a more than 60% increase in incidence relative to those in different-sex or same-citizenship couples. Meanwhile, those from countries with regressive laws experienced no significant increase. These results are corroborated by analyses of individual policies. We argue that the country-of-origin policy context affects and is affected by local norms and attitudes as well as individuals' material circumstances. This nexus of factors leaves a lasting impact on immigrants that shapes migration decisions, union formation, and responses to policy shifts.