Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Neil M. Ferguson, Matt J. Keeling, W. John Edmunds, Raymond Gani, Bryan T. Grenfell, Roy M. Anderson, Steve Leach

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

258 Scopus citations

Abstract

Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)681-685
Number of pages5
JournalNature
Volume425
Issue number6959
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 16 2003
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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    Ferguson, N. M., Keeling, M. J., Edmunds, W. J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B. T., Anderson, R. M., & Leach, S. (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, 425(6959), 681-685. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02007