Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Neil M. Ferguson; Matt J. Keeling; W. John Edmunds; Raymond Gani; Bryan T. Grenfell; Roy M. Anderson; Steve Leach

doi:10.1038/nature02007

Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Neil M. Ferguson, Matt J. Keeling, W. John Edmunds, Raymond Gani, Bryan T. Grenfell, Roy M. Anderson, Steve Leach

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

290 Scopus citations

Abstract

Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	681-685
Number of pages	5
Journal	Nature
Volume	425
Issue number	6959
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02007
State	Published - Oct 16 2003
Externally published	Yes

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title = "Planning for smallpox outbreaks",

abstract = "Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.",

author = "Ferguson, {Neil M.} and Keeling, {Matt J.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Raymond Gani and Grenfell, {Bryan T.} and Anderson, {Roy M.} and Steve Leach",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements We thank the Royal Society (N.M.F. and M.J.K.), MRC (N.M.F.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute (N.M.F.), BBSRC (M.J.K. and B.T.G.), the Wellcome Trust (B.T.G. and R.M.A.) and the Department of Health (W.J.E., R.G. and S.L.) for funding. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of Health, but we thank staff of the Department for discussions.",

year = "2003",

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doi = "10.1038/nature02007",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "425",

pages = "681--685",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "6959",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Planning for smallpox outbreaks

AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Keeling, Matt J.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Gani, Raymond

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

AU - Anderson, Roy M.

AU - Leach, Steve

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgements We thank the Royal Society (N.M.F. and M.J.K.), MRC (N.M.F.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute (N.M.F.), BBSRC (M.J.K. and B.T.G.), the Wellcome Trust (B.T.G. and R.M.A.) and the Department of Health (W.J.E., R.G. and S.L.) for funding. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of Health, but we thank staff of the Department for discussions.

PY - 2003/10/16

Y1 - 2003/10/16

N2 - Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

AB - Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

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DO - 10.1038/nature02007

M3 - Review article

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SN - 0028-0836

VL - 425

SP - 681

EP - 685

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 6959

ER -

Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Abstract

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