@article{fcedec2c434946199224379af5948942,
title = "Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading",
abstract = "Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.",
author = "Laura Cooper and Kang, {Su Yun} and Donal Bisanzio and Kilama Maxwell and Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer and Bryan Greenhouse and Chris Drakeley and Emmanuel Arinaitwe and {G. Staedke}, Sarah and Gething, {Peter W.} and Philip Eckhoff and Reiner, {Robert C.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Grant Dorsey and Kamya, {Moses R.} and Lindsay, {Steven W.} and Grenfell, {Bryan T.} and Smith, {David L.}",
note = "Funding Information: We would like to thank those in the study communities who participated in this study or helped collect mosquitoes. Funding for the research and support for K.M., S.W.L., G.D., M.R.K., C.D., and D.L.S. came from National Institutes of Health as part of the International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICMER) program (U19AI089674). The authors wish to acknowledge the Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration (IDRC) for administrative and technical support. B.T.G., D.L.S., P.W.G., S.Y.K., S.W.L., D.B., and S.I.H. receive support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (105338, OPP1068048, OPP110495, OPP1106023, OPP1091919). P.W.G. is a Career Development Fellow (K00669X) jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement, also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. S.I.H. is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (095066). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, The Author(s).",
year = "2019",
month = dec,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "10",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",
}