Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Laura Cooper; Su Yun Kang; Donal Bisanzio; Kilama Maxwell; Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer; Bryan Greenhouse; Chris Drakeley; Emmanuel Arinaitwe; Sarah G. Staedke; Peter W. Gething; Philip Eckhoff; Robert C. Reiner; Simon I. Hay; Grant Dorsey; Moses R. Kamya; Steven W. Lindsay; Bryan T. Grenfell; David L. Smith

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Laura Cooper, Su Yun Kang, Donal Bisanzio, Kilama Maxwell, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Bryan Greenhouse, Chris Drakeley, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Sarah G. Staedke, Peter W. Gething, Philip Eckhoff, Robert C. Reiner, Simon I. Hay, Grant Dorsey, Moses R. Kamya, Steven W. Lindsay, Bryan T. Grenfell, David L. Smith

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27 Scopus citations

Abstract

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	3939
Journal	Nature communications
Volume	10
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
State	Published - Dec 1 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General
Physics and Astronomy(all)
Chemistry(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)

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10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

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Cooper, L., Kang, S. Y., Bisanzio, D., Maxwell, K., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Greenhouse, B., Drakeley, C., Arinaitwe, E., G. Staedke, S., Gething, P. W., Eckhoff, P., Reiner, R. C., Hay, S. I., Dorsey, G., Kamya, M. R., Lindsay, S. W., Grenfell, B. T., & Smith, D. L. (2019). Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading. Nature communications, 10(1), [3939]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

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title = "Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading",

abstract = "Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.",

author = "Laura Cooper and Kang, {Su Yun} and Donal Bisanzio and Kilama Maxwell and Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer and Bryan Greenhouse and Chris Drakeley and Emmanuel Arinaitwe and {G. Staedke}, Sarah and Gething, {Peter W.} and Philip Eckhoff and Reiner, {Robert C.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Grant Dorsey and Kamya, {Moses R.} and Lindsay, {Steven W.} and Grenfell, {Bryan T.} and Smith, {David L.}",

note = "Funding Information: We would like to thank those in the study communities who participated in this study or helped collect mosquitoes. Funding for the research and support for K.M., S.W.L., G.D., M.R.K., C.D., and D.L.S. came from National Institutes of Health as part of the International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICMER) program (U19AI089674). The authors wish to acknowledge the Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration (IDRC) for administrative and technical support. B.T.G., D.L.S., P.W.G., S.Y.K., S.W.L., D.B., and S.I.H. receive support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (105338, OPP1068048, OPP110495, OPP1106023, OPP1091919). P.W.G. is a Career Development Fellow (K00669X) jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement, also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. S.I.H. is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (095066). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y",

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Cooper, L, Kang, SY, Bisanzio, D, Maxwell, K, Rodriguez-Barraquer, I, Greenhouse, B, Drakeley, C, Arinaitwe, E, G. Staedke, S, Gething, PW, Eckhoff, P, Reiner, RC, Hay, SI, Dorsey, G, Kamya, MR, Lindsay, SW, Grenfell, BT & Smith, DL 2019, 'Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading', Nature communications, vol. 10, no. 1, 3939. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

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T1 - Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

AU - Cooper, Laura

AU - Kang, Su Yun

AU - Bisanzio, Donal

AU - Maxwell, Kilama

AU - Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel

AU - Greenhouse, Bryan

AU - Drakeley, Chris

AU - Arinaitwe, Emmanuel

AU - G. Staedke, Sarah

AU - Gething, Peter W.

AU - Eckhoff, Philip

AU - Reiner, Robert C.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Dorsey, Grant

AU - Kamya, Moses R.

AU - Lindsay, Steven W.

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

AU - Smith, David L.

N1 - Funding Information: We would like to thank those in the study communities who participated in this study or helped collect mosquitoes. Funding for the research and support for K.M., S.W.L., G.D., M.R.K., C.D., and D.L.S. came from National Institutes of Health as part of the International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICMER) program (U19AI089674). The authors wish to acknowledge the Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration (IDRC) for administrative and technical support. B.T.G., D.L.S., P.W.G., S.Y.K., S.W.L., D.B., and S.I.H. receive support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (105338, OPP1068048, OPP110495, OPP1106023, OPP1091919). P.W.G. is a Career Development Fellow (K00669X) jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement, also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. S.I.H. is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (095066). Publisher Copyright: © 2019, The Author(s).

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

AB - Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

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ER -

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

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