@article{96d69fbcfada42d5b4b4a01402eec16d,
title = "Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility",
abstract = "We examine the role of overconfidence in news judgment using two large nationally representative survey samples. First, we show that three in four Americans overestimate their relative ability to distinguish between legitimate and false news headlines; respondents place themselves 22 percentiles higher than warranted on average. This overconfidence is, in turn, correlated with consequential differences in real-world beliefs and behavior. We show that overconfident individuals are more likely to visit untrustworthy websites in behavioral data; to fail to successfully distinguish between true and false claims about current events in survey questions; and to report greater willingness to like or share false content on social media, especially when it is politically congenial. In all, these results paint a worrying picture: The individuals who are least equipped to identify false news content are also the least aware of their own limitations and, therefore, more susceptible to believing it and spreading it further.",
keywords = "Misinformation, Overconfidence, Social media",
author = "Lyons, {Benjamin A.} and Montgomery, {Jacob M.} and Guess, {Andrew M.} and Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler",
note = "Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. This work was supported by Democracy Fund; the European Research Council under the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant 682758); the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College; Carnegie Corporation of New York; and the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University in St. Louis. We thank Rick Perloff, Ye Sun, Matt Motta, Mike Wagner, and seminar participants at the University of Gothenburg for helpful comments and Sam Luks and Marissa Shih at YouGov for survey assistance. All conclusions and any errors are our own. Funding Information: This work was supported by Democracy Fund; the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant 682758); the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College; Carnegie Corporation of New York; and the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University in St. Louis. We thank Rick Perloff, Ye Sun, Matt Motta, Mike Wagner, and seminar participants at the University of Gothenburg for helpful comments and Sam Luks and Marissa Shih at YouGov for survey assistance. All conclusions and any errors are our own. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.",
year = "2021",
month = jun,
day = "8",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.2019527118",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "118",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
publisher = "National Academy of Sciences",
number = "23",
}