Abstract
The claim arrival process to an insurance company is modeled by a compound Poisson process whose intensity and/or jump size distribution changes at an unobservable time with a known distribution. It is in the insurance company's interest to detect the change time as soon as possible in order to re-evaluate a new fair value for premiums to keep its profit level the same. This is equivalent to a problem in which the intensity and the jump size change at the same time but the intensity changes to a random variable with a know distribution. This problem becomes an optimal stopping problem for a Markovian sufficient statistic. Here, a special case of this problem is solved, in which the rate of the arrivals moves up to one of two possible values, and the Markovian sufficient statistic is two-dimensional.
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 125-158 |
Number of pages | 34 |
Journal | Mathematical Methods of Operations Research |
Volume | 68 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Aug 2008 |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Software
- General Mathematics
- Management Science and Operations Research
Keywords
- Compound Poisson processes
- Detecting the change in the characteristics of the claim arrival process
- Insurance premiums
- Optimal stopping