@article{c7107e9d80724c30bedc6c12f7a656fb,
title = "On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific",
abstract = "The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season in the North Pacific was very active, with 39 tropical storms including eight typhoons/hurricanes. This activity was successfully predicted up to 5 months in advance by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled model. In this work, a suite of idealized experiments with three dynamical global models (FLOR, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model, and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model) was used to show that the active 2018 TC season was primarily caused by warming in the subtropical Pacific and secondarily by warming in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the potential effect of anthropogenic forcing on the active 2018 TC season was investigated using two of the global models (FLOR and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model). The models projected opposite signs for the changes in TC frequency in the North Pacific by an increase in anthropogenic forcing, thereby highlighting the substantial uncertainty and model dependence in the possible impact of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific TC activity.",
keywords = "North Pacific, Pacific Meridional Mode, central Pacific El Ni{\~n}o, extreme events, future change, tropical cyclones",
author = "Y. Qian and H. Murakami and M. Nakano and Hsu, {P. C.} and Delworth, {T. L.} and Kapnick, {S. B.} and V. Ramaswamy and T. Mochizuki and Y. Morioka and T. Doi and T. Kataoka and T. Nasuno and K. Yoshida",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank Nat Johnson and Mitch Bushuk for their suggestions and comments. This work was partly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1505804) and China Scholarship Council (File 201808320271). The NICAM simulations were conducted on K Computer (Proposal hp180182) and post-processed on the data analyzer at JAMSTEC. The Earth Simulator supercomputer was used for the simulations with MRI-AGCM. The data analyzed in this paper are available online (at ftp://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/1p/users/Hiroyuki.Murakami/2018TC/FLOR-NICAM-MRI/). Funding Information: The authors thank Nat Johnson and Mitch Bushuk for their suggestions and comments. This work was partly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1505804) and China Scholarship Council (File 201808320271). The NICAM simulations were conducted on K Computer (Proposal hp180182) and post‐processed on the data analyzer at JAMSTEC. The Earth Simulator supercomputer was used for the simulations with MRI‐AGCM. The data analyzed in this paper are available online (at ftp://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/1p/users/Hiroyuki.Murakami/2018TC/FLOR‐NICAM‐MRI/ ). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2019. The Authors.",
year = "2019",
month = nov,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1029/2019GL084566",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "46",
pages = "12293--12302",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "21",
}