Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome

Gabriele Villarini, James A. Smith, Francesco Napolitano

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

148 Scopus citations


A long record (1862-2004) of seasonal rainfall and temperature from the Rome observatory of Collegio Romano are modeled in a nonstationary framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarities in rainfall and related climate variables. It is shown that the GAMLSS models are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the seasonal time series with parameters which are a smooth function of time. Covariate analyses highlight the role of seasonal and interannual variability of large-scale climate forcing, as reflected in three teleconnection indexes (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Mediterranean Index), for modeling seasonal rainfall and temperature over Rome. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation is a significant predictor during the winter, while the Mediterranean Index is a significant predictor for almost all seasons.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1256-1267
Number of pages12
JournalAdvances in Water Resources
Issue number10
StatePublished - Oct 2010

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology


  • Nonstationarity
  • Rainfall
  • Teleconnections
  • Temperature


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