Negotiating risks to natural capital in net-zero transitions

Global and national commitments on climate imply clean energy and industrial infrastructure deployment at a speed and scale that could have serious implications for natural capital and other important land uses. Prior modelling of a net-zero emissions solution for Australia sites new renewable infrastructure on 111,000 km² of land (approximately 1.7 times the area of mainland Tasmania) by 2060. That solution uses a single, static and certain map of land availability, making it immediately vulnerable to competition with other national goals involving widespread land management. We have incorporated climate goals with consistent handling of Australian Indigenous estate and varying treatments for biodiversity and agriculture to demonstrate an approach to navigate the risks to achieving both the net-zero goal and sustainable use of natural capital in an uncertain land-use planning future. We have identified regions of Australia in which modelled renewable infrastructure is rendered infeasible or more costly when natural capital protection occurs without collaborative consideration of climate action. Our approach and methods are relevant globally and highlight the importance of proactively, collaboratively and regularly reconsidering the risks to the natural capital on which we not only plan our net-zero solutions but also rely on for the critical systems that sustain life and lifestyles.