Consider a small-sample parametric estimation problem, such as the estimation of the coefficient in a Gaussian AR(1). We develop a numerical algorithm that determines an estimator that is nearly (mean or median) unbiased, and among all such estimators, comes close to minimizing a weighted average risk criterion. We also apply our generic approach to the median unbiased estimation of the degree of time variation in a Gaussian local-level model, and to a quantile unbiased point forecast for a Gaussian AR(1) process.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Economics and Econometrics
- Mean bias
- Median bias
- Quantile unbiased forecast