Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide

S. Manabe, R. J. Stouffer

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Abstract

To speculate on the future change of climate over several centuries, three 500-year integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model were performed. In addition to the standard integration in which the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide remains unchanged, two integrations are conducted. In one integration, the CO2 concentration increases by 1% yr-1 (compounded) until it reaches four times the initial value at the 140th year and remains unchanged thereafter. In another integration, the CO2 concentration also increases at the rate of 1% yr-1 until it reaches twice the initial value at the 70th year and remains unchanged thereafter. During the 500-year period of the doubling and quadrupling experiments, the global mean surface air temperature increases by about 3.5°C and 7°C, respectively. The rise of sea level due to the thermal expansion of sea water is about 1 and 1.8 m, respectively, and could be much larger if the contribution of meltwater from continental ice sheets were included. It is speculated that the two experiments described above provide a probable range of future climate change. -from Authors

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5-23
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume7
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1994

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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