TY - JOUR
T1 - Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics
AU - Wesolowski, Amy
AU - Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth
AU - Tatem, Andrew J.
AU - Lourenço, Christopher
AU - Viboud, Cecile
AU - Charu, Vivek
AU - Eagle, Nathan
AU - Engø-Monsen, Kenth
AU - Qureshi, Taimur
AU - Buckee, Caroline O.
AU - Metcalf, C. J.E.
N1 - Funding Information:
A.W. is supported by a Career Award at the Scientific Interface from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund. A.W., C.J.E.M., C.O.B., E.z.E.-S., and A.J.T. are supported by the Wellcome Trust (106866/Z/15/Z). We would like to acknowledge the support by MTC (Namibia) and Telenor. A.J.T. is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106427, 1032350, OPP1134076, OPP1094793) and the Clinton Health Access Initiative. C.J.E.M. is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. C.O.B. is supported by the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study program (cooperative agreement 1U54GM088558). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We would like to give credit to MTC whose assistance and support made the realization of this study possible.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 The Author(s).
PY - 2017/12/1
Y1 - 2017/12/1
N2 - Seasonal variation in human mobility is globally ubiquitous and affects the spatial spread of infectious diseases, but the ability to measure seasonality in human movement has been limited by data availability. Here, we use mobile phone data to quantify seasonal travel and directional asymmetries in Kenya, Namibia, and Pakistan, across a spectrum from rural nomadic populations to highly urbanized communities. We then model how the geographic spread of several acute pathogens with varying life histories could depend on country-wide connectivity fluctuations through the year. In all three countries, major national holidays are associated with shifts in the scope of travel. Within this broader pattern, the relative importance of particular routes also fluctuates over the course of the year, with increased travel from rural to urban communities after national holidays, for example. These changes in travel impact how fast communities are likely to be reached by an introduced pathogen.
AB - Seasonal variation in human mobility is globally ubiquitous and affects the spatial spread of infectious diseases, but the ability to measure seasonality in human movement has been limited by data availability. Here, we use mobile phone data to quantify seasonal travel and directional asymmetries in Kenya, Namibia, and Pakistan, across a spectrum from rural nomadic populations to highly urbanized communities. We then model how the geographic spread of several acute pathogens with varying life histories could depend on country-wide connectivity fluctuations through the year. In all three countries, major national holidays are associated with shifts in the scope of travel. Within this broader pattern, the relative importance of particular routes also fluctuates over the course of the year, with increased travel from rural to urban communities after national holidays, for example. These changes in travel impact how fast communities are likely to be reached by an introduced pathogen.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-017-02064-4
DO - 10.1038/s41467-017-02064-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 29234011
AN - SCOPUS:85037742326
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 8
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 2069
ER -