TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine
AU - Fu, Han
AU - Lewnard, Joseph A.
AU - Frost, Isabel
AU - Laxminarayan, Ramanan
AU - Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12/1
Y1 - 2021/12/1
N2 - There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7–11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6–8.1%) of deaths over 2020–2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12–16%) and 31% (29–33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance.
AB - There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7–11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6–8.1%) of deaths over 2020–2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12–16%) and 31% (29–33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x
DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 33462224
AN - SCOPUS:85099552923
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 12
JO - Nature communications
JF - Nature communications
IS - 1
M1 - 424
ER -