@article{d240f23896dd4789b0d39379bb2569e0,
title = "Modeling social-ecological scenarios in marine systems",
abstract = "Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems+ including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be represented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social-ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.",
keywords = "Baltic Sea, Nereus, ecosystem approach, governance, human dimension",
author = "Henrik {\"O}sterblom and Andrew Merrie and Marc Metian and Boonstra, {Wiebren J.} and Thorsten Blenckner and Watson, {James R.} and Rykaczewski, {Ryan R.} and Yoshitaka Ota and Sarmiento, {Jorge Louis} and Villy Christensen and Maja Schl{\"u}ter and Simon Birnbaum and Gustafsson, {Bo G.} and Christoph Humborg and M{\"o}rth, {Carl Magnus} and B{\"a}rbel M{\"u}ller-Karulis and Tomczak, {Maciej T.} and Max Troell and Carl Folke",
note = "Funding Information: The Nippon Foundation–University of British Columbia Nereus program is a collaborative initiative by the Nippon Foundation, the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and five additional partners. The present article is a product of Nereus{\textquoteright} international and interdisciplinary effort toward global sustainable fisheries; this is Nereus contribution no. 1. This research was also supported by Mistra (the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research), through a core grant to the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University, and through the Regime Shifts in the Baltic Sea Ecosystem project and the Baltic Ecosystem Adaptive Management Program, funded by FORMAS (the Swedish Research Council) and the Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change (NorMER). Constructive comments that were provided by Reinette “Oonsie” Biggs on an earlier draft were much appreciated.",
year = "2013",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1525/bio.2013.63.9.9",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "63",
pages = "735--744",
journal = "BioScience",
issn = "0006-3568",
publisher = "American Institute of Biological Sciences",
number = "9",
}