Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes

Morris A. Bender; Thomas R. Knutson; Robert E. Tuleya; Joseph J. Sirutis; Gabriel A. Vecchi; Stephen T. Garner; Isaac M. Held

doi:10.1126/science.1180568

Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes

Morris A. Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Robert E. Tuleya, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

843 Scopus citations

Abstract

Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	454-458
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	327
Issue number	5964
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1180568
State	Published - Jan 22 2010
Externally published	Yes

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title = "Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes",

abstract = "Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.",

author = "Bender, {Morris A.} and Knutson, {Thomas R.} and Tuleya, {Robert E.} and Sirutis, {Joseph J.} and Vecchi, {Gabriel A.} and Garner, {Stephen T.} and Held, {Isaac M.}",

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AU - Bender, Morris A.

AU - Knutson, Thomas R.

AU - Tuleya, Robert E.

AU - Sirutis, Joseph J.

AU - Vecchi, Gabriel A.

AU - Garner, Stephen T.

AU - Held, Isaac M.

PY - 2010/1/22

Y1 - 2010/1/22

N2 - Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

AB - Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

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Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes

Abstract

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