@article{753602825dce4479ba9bed230cb3669b,
title = "Model Spread in the Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Seed Propensity Index Across Global Warming and ENSO-Like Perturbations",
abstract = "The future projection of tropical cyclone frequency is highly uncertain. Recent multi-model studies showed that the model spread in tropical cyclones is correlated with the model spread in seeds, which are defined as convective weak vortices. However, it was unclear how the model spread is related to the large-scale circulation. Here we apply a downscaling theory recently developed using aquaplanet experiments to explain the seed frequency across four global atmospheric models having different parameterizations of convection and resolutions. The seed frequency has a larger model spread in response to uniform warming than to CO2 doubling or El Ni{\~n}o/La Ni{\~n}a-like sea surface temperature perturbations. Across all climate perturbations, the seed frequency is captured by the downscaling theory, expressed as a seed propensity index. The index highlights the connection between the tropical cyclone seeds and the climatological mean ascent pattern.",
keywords = "climate change, climate model, downscaling, tropical cyclone",
author = "Hsieh, {Tsung Lin} and Wenchang Yang and Vecchi, {Gabriel A.} and Ming Zhao",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Zhihong Tan for comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We thank Isaac Held and Thomas Knutson for discussion. The HiRAM-50km, AM2.5-50km and AM2.5-25km simulations were performed on computational resources managed and supported by Princeton Research Computing, a consortium of groups including the Princeton Institute for Computational Science and Engineering, the Office of Information Technology's High Performance Computing Center, and the Visualization Laboratory at Princeton University. The AM4-50km simulations were performed on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High Performance Computing System. This work has been supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/OCO (award NA18OAR4310418), NOAA/MAPP (award NA18OAR4310273), and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University. Funding Information: We thank Zhihong Tan for comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We thank Isaac Held and Thomas Knutson for discussion. The HiRAM‐50km, AM2.5‐50km and AM2.5‐25km simulations were performed on computational resources managed and supported by Princeton Research Computing, a consortium of groups including the Princeton Institute for Computational Science and Engineering, the Office of Information Technology's High Performance Computing Center, and the Visualization Laboratory at Princeton University. The AM4‐50km simulations were performed on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High Performance Computing System. This work has been supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/OCO (award NA18OAR4310418), NOAA/MAPP (award NA18OAR4310273), and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022. The Authors.",
year = "2022",
month = apr,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1029/2021GL097157",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "49",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "7",
}