Mining Competition and Violent Conflict in Africa: Pitting Against Each Other

Existing explanations for the well-established relationship between mining and conflict predominantly interpret violence near mines as conflict over territory or government. We provide evidence that competition between artisanal and industrial miners is also an important source of natural resources–related conflict, drawing on qualitative case studies at mining sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe and a large-N analysis. For the latter, we use machine learning to estimate the feasibility of artisanal mining across the continent of Africa based on geological conditions. The impact of price shocks on violent conflict is over three times larger in locations with industrial mining where artisanal mining is feasible than in places with industrial mining unsuitable for artisanal mining. Our estimates suggest that 31%–55% of the observed mining-conflict relationships is due to violent industrial-artisanal miner competition. This implies new avenues for conflict mitigation as the clean energy transition increases demand for minerals.