TY - JOUR
T1 - Mechanistic models to meet the challenge of climate change in plant-pathogen systems
AU - Jiranek, Juliana
AU - Miller, Ian F.
AU - An, Ruby
AU - Bruns, Emme
AU - Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
N1 - Funding Information:
C.J.E.M., I.F.M. and J.J. acknowledge funding from the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s)
PY - 2023/3/27
Y1 - 2023/3/27
N2 - Evidence that climate change will impact the ecology and evolution of individual plant species is growing. However, little, as yet, is known about how climate change will affect interactions between plants and their pathogens. Climate drivers could affect the physiology, and thus demography, and ultimately evolutionary processes affecting both plant hosts and their pathogens. Because the impacts of climate drivers may operate in different directions at different scales of infection, and, furthermore, may be nonlinear, abstracting across these processes may mis-specify outcomes. Here, we use mechanistic models of plant-pathogen interactions to illustrate how counterintuitive outcomes are possible, and we introduce how such framing may contribute to understanding climate effects on plant-pathogen systems. We discuss the evidence-base derived from wild and agricultural plant-pathogen systems that could inform such models, specifically in the direction of estimates of physiological, demographic and evolutionary responses to climate change. We conclude by providing an overview of knowledge gaps and directions for future research in this important area. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.
AB - Evidence that climate change will impact the ecology and evolution of individual plant species is growing. However, little, as yet, is known about how climate change will affect interactions between plants and their pathogens. Climate drivers could affect the physiology, and thus demography, and ultimately evolutionary processes affecting both plant hosts and their pathogens. Because the impacts of climate drivers may operate in different directions at different scales of infection, and, furthermore, may be nonlinear, abstracting across these processes may mis-specify outcomes. Here, we use mechanistic models of plant-pathogen interactions to illustrate how counterintuitive outcomes are possible, and we introduce how such framing may contribute to understanding climate effects on plant-pathogen systems. We discuss the evidence-base derived from wild and agricultural plant-pathogen systems that could inform such models, specifically in the direction of estimates of physiological, demographic and evolutionary responses to climate change. We conclude by providing an overview of knowledge gaps and directions for future research in this important area. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.
KW - climate change
KW - mechanistic model
KW - plant pathogen
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U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2022.0017
DO - 10.1098/rstb.2022.0017
M3 - Review article
C2 - 36744564
AN - SCOPUS:85147391013
SN - 0962-8436
VL - 378
JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
IS - 1873
M1 - 20220017
ER -