TY - JOUR
T1 - Mechanism for Increasing Tropical Rainfall Unevenness With Global Warming
AU - Zhang, Yi
AU - Fueglistaler, Stephan
N1 - Funding Information:
This report was prepared by Y. Z. under award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce. S. F. acknowledges support from National Science Fundation Awards AGS‐1417659 and AGS‐1743753. ERA‐Interim data provided by European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) can be accessed online (at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/archive-datasets/reanalysisdatasets/era-interim ). Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data provided by NASA can be accessed at the GES DISC website ( https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/TRMM_3B43_7/summary ). Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data provided by NASA can be accessed online (at ftp://meso.gsfc .nasa.gov/pub/1dd‐v1.2 ). CMIP5 model data provided by the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling and climate modeling groups can be accessed at the ESGF‐LLNL website ( https://esgf‐node.llnl.gov/ projects/cmip5 ).
Funding Information:
This report was prepared by Y. Z. under award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce. S.?F. acknowledges support from National Science Fundation Awards AGS-1417659 and AGS-1743753. ERA-Interim data provided by European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) can be accessed online (at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/archive-datasets/reanalysisdatasets/era-interim). Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data provided by NASA can be accessed at the GES DISC website (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/TRMM_3B43_7/summary). Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data provided by NASA can be accessed online (at ftp://meso.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/1dd-v1.2). CMIP5 model data provided by the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling and climate modeling groups can be accessed at the ESGF-LLNL website (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/ projects/cmip5).
Publisher Copyright:
©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2019/12/28
Y1 - 2019/12/28
N2 - Global climate models predict that tropical rainfall will be distributed more unevenly with global warming; that is, dry regions or months will get drier and wet regions or months will get wetter. Previous mechanisms such as “dry-get-drier, wet-get-wetter”; “rich-get-richer”; or “upped-ante” focus on the spatial pattern of rainfall changes rather than the changes in probability distribution. Here, we present a quantitative explanation of the warming-induced probability distribution change of rainfall: Subcloud moist static energy (MSE) gradients are amplified by Clausius-Clapeyron relationship given roughly uniform warming and constant relative humidity. Therefore, the present-day wet regions will become more competitive for convection in a warmer world. Though changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern can enhance rainfall in one place and suppress rainfall in another, our results show that the total effect should be a decrease in the area of active convection even with uniform warming.
AB - Global climate models predict that tropical rainfall will be distributed more unevenly with global warming; that is, dry regions or months will get drier and wet regions or months will get wetter. Previous mechanisms such as “dry-get-drier, wet-get-wetter”; “rich-get-richer”; or “upped-ante” focus on the spatial pattern of rainfall changes rather than the changes in probability distribution. Here, we present a quantitative explanation of the warming-induced probability distribution change of rainfall: Subcloud moist static energy (MSE) gradients are amplified by Clausius-Clapeyron relationship given roughly uniform warming and constant relative humidity. Therefore, the present-day wet regions will become more competitive for convection in a warmer world. Though changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern can enhance rainfall in one place and suppress rainfall in another, our results show that the total effect should be a decrease in the area of active convection even with uniform warming.
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U2 - 10.1029/2019GL086058
DO - 10.1029/2019GL086058
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85077080457
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 46
SP - 14836
EP - 14843
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 24
ER -