Measles as a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos

B. T. Grenfell, A. Kleczkowski, S. P. Ellner, B. M. Bolker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper uses measles incidence in developed countries as the basis of a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. It uses a combination of epidemiological modelling and nonlinear forecasting to explore a range of issues relating to the predictability of measles before and after the advent of mass vaccination. A comparison of the pre-vaccination self-predictability of measles in England and Wales indicates relatively high predictability of these prodominantly biennial epidemic series, compared to New York City, which shows mixture of one-, two- and three-year epidemics. This analysis also indicates the importance of choosing correct embeddings to avoid bias in prediction. -from Authors

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)497-514
Number of pages18
JournalPhilosophical Transactions - Royal Society of London, A
Volume348
Issue number1688
StatePublished - Jan 1 1994
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Mathematics(all)
  • Engineering(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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