Abstract
This paper uses measles incidence in developed countries as the basis of a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. It uses a combination of epidemiological modelling and nonlinear forecasting to explore a range of issues relating to the predictability of measles before and after the advent of mass vaccination. A comparison of the pre-vaccination self-predictability of measles in England and Wales indicates relatively high predictability of these prodominantly biennial epidemic series, compared to New York City, which shows mixture of one-, two- and three-year epidemics. This analysis also indicates the importance of choosing correct embeddings to avoid bias in prediction. -from Authors
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 497-514 |
Number of pages | 18 |
Journal | Philosophical Transactions - Royal Society of London, A |
Volume | 348 |
Issue number | 1688 |
State | Published - 1994 |
Externally published | Yes |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- General Mathematics
- General Engineering
- General Physics and Astronomy