Abstract
In the paper we study a cellular automata (CA) model of epidemic dynamics. The effects of local spatial correlations on a temporal (aggregated) spread of single epidemics are studied, as a function of increasing proportion of global contacts (`small world' model). We conjecture that even in the presence of high local correlations, the aggregated (mean-field-type) models can be quite successful, if the contact rate is treated as a free parameter. The dependence of the (estimated) contact rate on the mixing parameter can be understood in terms of a simple probabilistic model. The contact rate reflects not only a microscopic and epidemiological situation, but also a complicated social pattern, including short- and long-range contacts as well as a possibly hierarchical structure of human society.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 355-360 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications |
| Volume | 274 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 1 1999 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | Proceedings of the 1999 NATO Advanced Research Workshop 'Applications of Statistical Physics' - Budapest, Hung Duration: May 19 1999 → May 22 1999 |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Statistics and Probability
- Condensed Matter Physics