Machine Learning for Modeling Human Decisions

The rapid development of machine learning has led to new opportunities for applying these methods to the study of human decision making. We highlight some of these opportunities and discuss some of the issues that arisewhen usingmachine learning to model the decisions people make. We first elaborate on the relationship between predicting decisions and explaining them, leveraging findings from computational learning theory to argue that, in some cases, the conversion of predictive models to interpretable ones with comparable accuracy is an intractable problem. We then identify an important bottleneck in using machine learning to study human cognition—data scarcity—and highlight active learning and optimal experimental design as a way to move forward. Finally, we touch on additional topics such as machine learning methods for combining multiple predictors arising from known theories and specific machine learning architectures that could prove useful for the study of judgment and decision making. In doing so, we point out connections to behavioral economics, computer science, cognitive science, and psychology.