Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-covid-19 world

Jaspreet Toor, Susy Echeverria-Londono, Xiang Li, Kaja Abbas, Emily D. Carter, Hannah E. Clapham, Andrew Clark, Margaret J. de Villiers, Kirsten Eilertson, Matthew Ferrari, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Timothy B. Hallett, Wes R. Hinsley, Daniel Hogan, John H. Huber, Michael L. Jackson, Kevin Jean, Mark Jit, Andromachi Karachaliou, Petra KlepacAlicia Kraay, Justin Lessler, Xi Li, Benjamin A. Lopman, Tewodaj Mengistu, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Sean M. Moore, Shevanthi Nayagam, Timos Papadopoulos, T. Alex Perkins, Allison Portnoy, Homie Razavi, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Stephen Resch, Colin Sanderson, Steven Sweet, Yvonne Tam, Hira Tanvir, Quan Tran Minh, Caroline L. Trotter, Shaun A. Truelove, Emilia Vynnycky, Neff Walker, Amy Winter, Kim Woodruff, Neil M. Ferguson, Katy A.M. Gaythorpe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

47 Scopus citations


Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere67635
StatePublished - Jul 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Immunology and Microbiology
  • General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
  • General Neuroscience


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