@article{9729f3aac0694b7eb8055270fc7e72be,
title = "Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models",
abstract = "A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then weakly rotating seeds. In experiments with perturbed sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration from the historical values, the response of TCs follows the response of seeds. The distribution of seeds is explained by the distribution of the non-rotating convective clusters multiplied by a probability that they transition to seeds. The distribution of convective clusters is constrained by the large-scale vertical velocity and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with shifting Inter tropical Convergence Zones. The probability of transition to seeds is constrained by the large-scale vorticity via an analytical function, representing the relative importance between vortex stretching and vorticity advection, and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with uniform SST. The consistency between seed and TC responses breaks down substantially when the realistic SST is perturbed such that the spatial gradient is significantly enhanced or reduced. In such cases, the difference between the responses is explained by a change in the ventilation index, which influences the fraction of seeds that develop into TCs. The proposed TC-climate relationship serves as a framework to explain the diversity of TC projection across models and forcing scenarios.",
author = "Hsieh, {Tsung Lin} and Vecchi, {Gabriel A.} and Wenchang Yang and Held, {Isaac M.} and Garner, {Stephen T.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Daniel Chavas, Hiroyuki Murakami and Gan Zhang for reviewing earlier versions of the manuscript, Levi Silvers and Thomas Robinson for help in setting up the AM4 model, and Ming Zhao and Thomas Knutson for discussion. This report was prepared by TLH under Award NA14OAR4320106 and NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce. GAV and WY are supported in part by NOAA/OCO (NA18OAR4310418) and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University. AM4 simulations presented in this article were performed on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory systems and HiRAM simulations on the Princeton University Research Computing systems. Data used in this research are archived on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Princeton University Research Computing systems and are available upon request. Funding Information: We thank Daniel Chavas, Hiroyuki Murakami and Gan Zhang for reviewing earlier versions of the manuscript, Levi Silvers and Thomas Robinson for help in setting up the AM4 model, and Ming Zhao and Thomas Knutson for discussion. This report was prepared by TLH under Award NA14OAR4320106 and NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce. GAV and WY are supported in part by NOAA/OCO (NA18OAR4310418) and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University. AM4 simulations presented in this article were performed on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory systems and HiRAM simulations on the Princeton University Research Computing systems. Data used in this research are archived on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Princeton University Research Computing systems and are available upon request. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s).",
year = "2020",
month = dec,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "55",
pages = "3177--3196",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
issn = "0930-7575",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
number = "11-12",
}