TY - JOUR
T1 - Is Ockham's razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony
AU - Dubova, Marina
AU - Chandramouli, Suyog
AU - Gigerenzer, Gerd
AU - Grünwald, Peter
AU - Holmes, William
AU - Lombrozo, Tania
AU - Marelli, Marco
AU - Musslick, Sebastian
AU - Nicenboim, Bruno
AU - Ross, Lauren N.
AU - Shiffrin, Richard
AU - White, Martha
AU - Wagenmakers, Eric Jan
AU - Bürkner, Paul Christian
AU - Sloman, Sabina J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2025 the Author(s)
PY - 2025
Y1 - 2025
N2 - The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D protein folding or climate forecasting). In this paper, we reexamine the parsimony principle in light of these scientific and technological advancements. We review recent developments, including the surprising benefits of modeling with more parameters than data, the increasing appreciation of the context-sensitivity of data and misspecification of scientific models, and the development of new modeling tools. By integrating these insights, we reassess the utility of parsimony as a proxy for desirable model traits, such as predictive accuracy, interpretability, effectiveness in guiding new research, and resource efficiency. We conclude that more complex models are sometimes essential for scientific progress, and discuss the ways in which parsimony and complexity can play complementary roles in scientific modeling practice.
AB - The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D protein folding or climate forecasting). In this paper, we reexamine the parsimony principle in light of these scientific and technological advancements. We review recent developments, including the surprising benefits of modeling with more parameters than data, the increasing appreciation of the context-sensitivity of data and misspecification of scientific models, and the development of new modeling tools. By integrating these insights, we reassess the utility of parsimony as a proxy for desirable model traits, such as predictive accuracy, interpretability, effectiveness in guiding new research, and resource efficiency. We conclude that more complex models are sometimes essential for scientific progress, and discuss the ways in which parsimony and complexity can play complementary roles in scientific modeling practice.
KW - Ockham's razor
KW - complexity
KW - parsimony
KW - scientific modeling
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2401230121
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2401230121
M3 - Article
C2 - 39869807
AN - SCOPUS:85216924168
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 122
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 5
M1 - e2401230121
ER -