Investigating the Physical Drivers for the Increasing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard in the United States

Dazhi Xi, Ning Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this study, we investigate both the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard in the United States under climate change and the relative importance of the factors that cause the changes. We find that under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the 100-year TC rainfall level can increase by up to 320% along the U.S. coastline by the end of this century. The influence of TC rainfall-producing ability increase is more significant than the influence of TC frequency increase on the increase of the 100-year TC rainfall level (up to 180% vs. 60% increase). Among the different physical drivers for the increase in storm rainfall-producing ability, the increase of TC intensity is the leading factor, followed by changes in TC duration and atmospheric temperature. The projected increase of TC rainfall hazard is robust against the uncertainty in the TC frequency projection.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2022GL099196
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume49
Issue number15
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 16 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Keywords

  • climate change
  • rainfall
  • tropical cyclone

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