Interpretable Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles via Counterfactual Responsibility

Kai Chieh Hsu, Karen Leung, Yuxiao Chen, Jaime F. Fisac, Marco Pavone

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The ability to anticipate surrounding agents' behaviors is critical to enable safe and seamless autonomous vehicles (AVs). While phenomenological methods have successfully predicted future trajectories from scene context, these predictions lack interpretability. On the other hand, ontological approaches assume an underlying structure able to describe the interaction dynamics or agents' internal decision processes. Still, they often suffer from poor scalability or cannot reflect diverse human behaviors. This work proposes an interpretability framework for a phenomenological method through responsibility evaluations. We formulate responsibility as a measure of how much an agent takes into account the welfare of other agents through counterfactual reasoning. Additionally, this framework abstracts the computed responsibility sequences into different responsibility levels and grounds these latent levels into reward functions. The proposed responsibility-based interpretability framework is modular and easily integrated into a wide range of prediction models. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework in providing added interpretability, we adapt an existing AV prediction model and perform a simulation study on a real-world nuScenes traffic dataset. Experimental results show that we can perform offline ex-post traffic analysis by incorporating the responsibility signal and rendering interpretable but accurate online trajectory predictions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2023 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, IROS 2023
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages5918-5925
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781665491907
DOIs
StatePublished - 2023
Event2023 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, IROS 2023 - Detroit, United States
Duration: Oct 1 2023Oct 5 2023

Publication series

NameIEEE International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems
ISSN (Print)2153-0858
ISSN (Electronic)2153-0866

Conference

Conference2023 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, IROS 2023
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityDetroit
Period10/1/2310/5/23

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Software
  • Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
  • Computer Science Applications

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