TY - JOUR
T1 - Integrating weather and climate prediction
T2 - Toward seamless hydrologic forecasting
AU - Yuan, Xing
AU - Wood, Eric F.
AU - Liang, Miaoling
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2014. American Geophysical Union.
PY - 2014/8/28
Y1 - 2014/8/28
N2 - Seamless hydrologic forecasting is explored through integratingmedium-range weather forecasts from NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2 (GEFSRv2) and seasonal climate predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). A set of 25 year hydrologic reforecasts over the Ohio basin shows that incorporating GEFSRv2 14 day forecasts into the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and CFSv2-based seasonal forecast systems improves efficiency scores for month-1 streamflow by up to 32.6% and 11.2%, respectively. For the second biweekly forecast, the combination of GEFSRv2 and CFSv2 is superior to that of GEFSRv2 and ESP by increasing efficiency score up to 17.2%, suggesting that the climate prediction usefully extends themedium-range hydrologic forecast. As compared with ESP, incorporation of either weather or climate prediction improves the month-1 soil moisture drought prediction significantly. The potential of seamless hydrologic forecast should be further investigated from the operational service perspective and improved understanding of underlying physical processes.
AB - Seamless hydrologic forecasting is explored through integratingmedium-range weather forecasts from NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2 (GEFSRv2) and seasonal climate predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). A set of 25 year hydrologic reforecasts over the Ohio basin shows that incorporating GEFSRv2 14 day forecasts into the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and CFSv2-based seasonal forecast systems improves efficiency scores for month-1 streamflow by up to 32.6% and 11.2%, respectively. For the second biweekly forecast, the combination of GEFSRv2 and CFSv2 is superior to that of GEFSRv2 and ESP by increasing efficiency score up to 17.2%, suggesting that the climate prediction usefully extends themedium-range hydrologic forecast. As compared with ESP, incorporation of either weather or climate prediction improves the month-1 soil moisture drought prediction significantly. The potential of seamless hydrologic forecast should be further investigated from the operational service perspective and improved understanding of underlying physical processes.
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U2 - 10.1002/2014GL061076
DO - 10.1002/2014GL061076
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84906026975
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 41
SP - 5891
EP - 5896
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 16
ER -