Influence of weak trends on exceedance probability

A. Porporato, L. Ridolfi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

26 Scopus citations


Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong influence of possible nonstationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river flow.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-14
Number of pages14
JournalStochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 1 1998
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Ocean Engineering
  • General Environmental Science
  • Mechanical Engineering


  • Exceedance probability
  • Non-stationarity
  • Stochastic variables
  • Trend


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