Abstract
Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong influence of possible nonstationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river flow.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1-14 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1998 |
| Externally published | Yes |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Environmental Engineering
- Environmental Chemistry
- Modeling and Simulation
- Water Science and Technology
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
- Ocean Engineering
- General Environmental Science
- Mechanical Engineering
Keywords
- Exceedance probability
- Non-stationarity
- Stochastic variables
- Trend