TY - JOUR
T1 - Influence of risk factors and past events on flood resilience in coastal megacities
T2 - Comparative analysis of NYC and Shanghai
AU - Xian, Siyuan
AU - Yin, Jie
AU - Lin, Ning
AU - Oppenheimer, Michael
N1 - Funding Information:
This work is supported by the National Science Foundation of the United States (grant EAR-1520683 ). We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading our manuscript and providing insightful comments and suggestions. We also would like to thank Robert Kopp for his discussions with us about the limitations of Shanghai sea level rise dataset. Appendix A
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - Coastal flood protection measures have been widely implemented to improve flood resilience. However, protection levels vary among coastal megacities globally. This study compares the distinct flood protection standards for two coastal megacities, New York City and Shanghai, and investigates potential influences such as risk factors and past flood events. Extreme value analysis reveals that, compared to NYC, Shanghai faces a significantly higher flood hazard. Flood inundation analysis indicates that Shanghai has a higher exposure to extreme flooding. Meanwhile, Shanghai's urban development, population, and economy have increased much faster than NYC's over the last three decades. These risk factors provide part of the explanation for the implementation of a relatively high level of protection (e.g. reinforced concrete sea-wall designed for a 200-year flood return level) in Shanghai and low protection (e.g. vertical brick and stone walls and sand dunes) in NYC. However, individual extreme flood events (typhoons in 1962, 1974, and 1981) seem to have had a greater impact on flood protection decision-making in Shanghai, while NYC responded significantly less to past events (with the exception of Hurricane Sandy). Climate change, sea level rise, and ongoing coastal development are rapidly changing the hazard and risk calculus for both cities and both would benefit from a more systematic and dynamic approach to coastal protection.
AB - Coastal flood protection measures have been widely implemented to improve flood resilience. However, protection levels vary among coastal megacities globally. This study compares the distinct flood protection standards for two coastal megacities, New York City and Shanghai, and investigates potential influences such as risk factors and past flood events. Extreme value analysis reveals that, compared to NYC, Shanghai faces a significantly higher flood hazard. Flood inundation analysis indicates that Shanghai has a higher exposure to extreme flooding. Meanwhile, Shanghai's urban development, population, and economy have increased much faster than NYC's over the last three decades. These risk factors provide part of the explanation for the implementation of a relatively high level of protection (e.g. reinforced concrete sea-wall designed for a 200-year flood return level) in Shanghai and low protection (e.g. vertical brick and stone walls and sand dunes) in NYC. However, individual extreme flood events (typhoons in 1962, 1974, and 1981) seem to have had a greater impact on flood protection decision-making in Shanghai, while NYC responded significantly less to past events (with the exception of Hurricane Sandy). Climate change, sea level rise, and ongoing coastal development are rapidly changing the hazard and risk calculus for both cities and both would benefit from a more systematic and dynamic approach to coastal protection.
KW - Coastal megacities
KW - Coastal resilience
KW - Decision making
KW - Exposure at risk
KW - Flood hazard
KW - Flood protection
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U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.229
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.229
M3 - Article
C2 - 28851145
AN - SCOPUS:85028296335
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 610-611
SP - 1251
EP - 1261
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
ER -