Infectious Diseases Transmission Dynamics: Modeling of Outbreaks and Interventions

Dynamic models have been part of the first-line response to emerging pathogens for decades. From the start of the HIV epidemic in the 1980s to the 2019 emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Time and time again, basic concepts, from the reproductive number to the generation time, have been critical to understanding disease spread and control. As illustrated by multiple case studies, the fundamental questions remain the same, though each disease threat presents new challenges, and recent decades have brought critical innovations in the use of data and modeling techniques. Still, challenges remain in effectively using and communicating dynamic models in infectious disease crises.