TY - JOUR
T1 - Increasing typhoon impact and economic losses due to anthropogenic warming in Southeast China
AU - Huang, Mingfeng
AU - Wang, Qing
AU - Liu, Maofeng
AU - Lin, Ning
AU - Wang, Yifan
AU - Jing, Renzhi
AU - Sun, Jianping
AU - Murakami, Hiroyuki
AU - Lou, Wenjuan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Despite a variety of studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) response to climate change, few of them have examined the projected damages of future TCs. Here we quantify the impact of anthropogenic warming on TC-induced damages in the late twenty-first century along the coasts of Southeast China based on convection-permitting TC simulations and machine-learning-based damage models. We found that if the area’s 10 super typhoons between 2013 and 2019 were to occur at the end of the century under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario, they would have on average a 12% ± 4% increase in landfall intensity, 25% ± 23% increase in precipitation, and 128% ± 70% increase in economic losses, compared to historical simulations. We also found a significant increase in the full risk profile. The estimated typhoon loss with a 50-year return period for Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan (four most typhoon-prone provinces among the seven provinces in the region) would increase by 71%, 170%, 20%, and 85%, respectively, towards the end of the century even under the lower emissions RCP4.5 pathway. Our findings imply the need to design effective local hazard mitigation measures to reduce future typhoon risks.
AB - Despite a variety of studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) response to climate change, few of them have examined the projected damages of future TCs. Here we quantify the impact of anthropogenic warming on TC-induced damages in the late twenty-first century along the coasts of Southeast China based on convection-permitting TC simulations and machine-learning-based damage models. We found that if the area’s 10 super typhoons between 2013 and 2019 were to occur at the end of the century under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario, they would have on average a 12% ± 4% increase in landfall intensity, 25% ± 23% increase in precipitation, and 128% ± 70% increase in economic losses, compared to historical simulations. We also found a significant increase in the full risk profile. The estimated typhoon loss with a 50-year return period for Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan (four most typhoon-prone provinces among the seven provinces in the region) would increase by 71%, 170%, 20%, and 85%, respectively, towards the end of the century even under the lower emissions RCP4.5 pathway. Our findings imply the need to design effective local hazard mitigation measures to reduce future typhoon risks.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41598-022-17323-8
DO - 10.1038/s41598-022-17323-8
M3 - Article
C2 - 36076001
AN - SCOPUS:85137568389
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 12
JO - Scientific reports
JF - Scientific reports
IS - 1
M1 - 14048
ER -