Increasing typhoon impact and economic losses due to anthropogenic warming in Southeast China

Mingfeng Huang, Qing Wang, Maofeng Liu, Ning Lin, Yifan Wang, Renzhi Jing, Jianping Sun, Hiroyuki Murakami, Wenjuan Lou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus citations


Despite a variety of studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) response to climate change, few of them have examined the projected damages of future TCs. Here we quantify the impact of anthropogenic warming on TC-induced damages in the late twenty-first century along the coasts of Southeast China based on convection-permitting TC simulations and machine-learning-based damage models. We found that if the area’s 10 super typhoons between 2013 and 2019 were to occur at the end of the century under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario, they would have on average a 12% ± 4% increase in landfall intensity, 25% ± 23% increase in precipitation, and 128% ± 70% increase in economic losses, compared to historical simulations. We also found a significant increase in the full risk profile. The estimated typhoon loss with a 50-year return period for Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan (four most typhoon-prone provinces among the seven provinces in the region) would increase by 71%, 170%, 20%, and 85%, respectively, towards the end of the century even under the lower emissions RCP4.5 pathway. Our findings imply the need to design effective local hazard mitigation measures to reduce future typhoon risks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number14048
JournalScientific reports
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General


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