TY - JOUR
T1 - Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts
AU - Xi, Dazhi
AU - Lin, Ning
AU - Gori, Avantika
N1 - Funding Information:
D.X. and N.L. were supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grant numbers ICER 1854993 and 2103754 (as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub) and by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Flood and Coastal Systems R&D Program through the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) Research Participation Program as part of an interagency agreement between the US Department of Defense (DOD) and the US Department of Energy (DOE). ORISE is managed by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) under DOE Contract No. DE-SC0014664. A.G. was supported by a National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate fellowship from the US DOD. All opinions expressed in this paper are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect the policies and views of the NSF, USACE, DOD, DOE or ORAU/ORISE. We thank K. Emanuel (MIT) for providing the synthetic storm datasets. We thank D. Chavas (Purdue University) for his constructive suggestions. We thank R. Kopp (Rutgers) for his support on the application of the SLR projections, and we thank the projection authors for developing the SLR projections and making them available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Sea Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool.
Funding Information:
D.X. and N.L. were supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grant numbers ICER 1854993 and 2103754 (as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub) and by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Flood and Coastal Systems R&D Program through the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) Research Participation Program as part of an interagency agreement between the US Department of Defense (DOD) and the US Department of Energy (DOE). ORISE is managed by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) under DOE Contract No. DE-SC0014664. A.G. was supported by a National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate fellowship from the US DOD. All opinions expressed in this paper are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect the policies and views of the NSF, USACE, DOD, DOE or ORAU/ORISE. We thank K. Emanuel (MIT) for providing the synthetic storm datasets. We thank D. Chavas (Purdue University) for his constructive suggestions. We thank R. Kopp (Rutgers) for his support on the application of the SLR projections, and we thank the projection authors for developing the SLR projections and making them available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Sea Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
PY - 2023/3
Y1 - 2023/3
N2 - Two tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall close together can induce sequential hazards to coastal areas. Here we investigate the change in sequential TC hazards in the historical and future projected climates. We find that the chance of sequential TC hazards has been increasing over the past several decades at many US locations. Under the high (moderate) emission scenario, the chance of hazards from two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days may substantially increase, with the return period decreasing over the century from 10–92 years to ~1–2 (1–3) years along the US East and Gulf coasts, due to sea-level rise and storm climatology change. Climate change can also cause unprecedented compounding of extreme hazards at the regional level. A Katrina-like TC and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.
AB - Two tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall close together can induce sequential hazards to coastal areas. Here we investigate the change in sequential TC hazards in the historical and future projected climates. We find that the chance of sequential TC hazards has been increasing over the past several decades at many US locations. Under the high (moderate) emission scenario, the chance of hazards from two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days may substantially increase, with the return period decreasing over the century from 10–92 years to ~1–2 (1–3) years along the US East and Gulf coasts, due to sea-level rise and storm climatology change. Climate change can also cause unprecedented compounding of extreme hazards at the regional level. A Katrina-like TC and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85148856483&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7
DO - 10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85148856483
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 13
SP - 258
EP - 265
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 3
ER -