Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozone-resistant cultivar selection

Meeting the projected 50% increase in global grain demand by 2030 without further environmental degradation poses a major challenge for agricultural production. Because surface ozone (O₃) has a significant negative impact on crop yields, one way to increase future production is to reduce O₃-induced agricultural losses. We present two strategies whereby O₃ damage to crops may be reduced. We first examine the potential benefits of an O₃ mitigation strategy motivated by climate change goals: gradual emission reductions of methane (CH₄), an important greenhouse gas and tropospheric O₃ precursor that has not yet been targeted for O₃ pollution abatement. Our second strategy focuses on adapting crops to O₃ exposure by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O₃ resistance. We find that the CH₄ reductions considered would increase global production of soybean, maize, and wheat by 23-102 Mt in 2030 - the equivalent of a ~2-8% increase in year 2000 production worth $3.5-15 billion worldwide (USD₂₀₀₀), increasing the cost effectiveness of this CH₄ mitigation policy. Choosing crop varieties with O₃ resistance (relative to median-sensitivity cultivars) could improve global agricultural production in 2030 by over 140 Mt, the equivalent of a 12% increase in 2000 production worth ~$22 billion. Benefits are dominated by improvements for wheat in South Asia, where O₃-induced crop losses would otherwise be severe. Combining the two strategies generates benefits that are less than fully additive, given the nature of O₃ effects on crops. Our results demonstrate the significant potential to sustainably improve global agricultural production by decreasing O₃-induced reductions in crop yields.