Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate

Curtis A. Deutsch, Joshua J. Tewksbury, Michelle Tigchelaar, David S. Battisti, Scott C. Merrill, Raymond B. Huey, Rosamond L. Naylor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

284 Scopus citations

Abstract

Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains—rice, maize, and wheat—but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25% per degree of global mean surface warming. Crop losses will be most acute in areas where warming increases both population growth and metabolic rates of insects. These conditions are centered primarily in temperate regions, where most grain is produced.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)916-919
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume361
Issue number6405
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 31 2018
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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