TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of Warmer Sea Surface Temperature on the Global Pattern of Intense Convection
T2 - Insights From a Global Storm Resolving Model
AU - Cheng, Kai Yuan
AU - Harris, Lucas
AU - Bretherton, Christopher
AU - Merlis, Timothy M.
AU - Bolot, Maximilien
AU - Zhou, Linjiong
AU - Kaltenbaugh, Alex
AU - Clark, Spencer
AU - Fueglistaler, Stephan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2022/8/28
Y1 - 2022/8/28
N2 - Intense convection (updrafts exceeding 10 m s−1) plays an essential role in severe weather and Earth's energy balance. Despite its importance, how the global pattern of intense convection changes in response to warmed climates remains unclear, as simulations from traditional climate models are too coarse to simulate intense convection. Here we use a kilometer-scale global storm resolving model (GSRM) and conduct year-long simulations of a control run, forced by analyzed sea surface temperature (SST), and one with a 4 K increase in SST. Comparisons show that the increased SST enhances the frequency of intense convection globally with large spatial and seasonal variations. Changes in the spatial pattern of intense convection are associated with changes in planetary circulation. Increases in the intense convection frequency do not necessarily reflect increases in convective available potential energy. The GSRM results are also compared with previously published traditional climate model projections.
AB - Intense convection (updrafts exceeding 10 m s−1) plays an essential role in severe weather and Earth's energy balance. Despite its importance, how the global pattern of intense convection changes in response to warmed climates remains unclear, as simulations from traditional climate models are too coarse to simulate intense convection. Here we use a kilometer-scale global storm resolving model (GSRM) and conduct year-long simulations of a control run, forced by analyzed sea surface temperature (SST), and one with a 4 K increase in SST. Comparisons show that the increased SST enhances the frequency of intense convection globally with large spatial and seasonal variations. Changes in the spatial pattern of intense convection are associated with changes in planetary circulation. Increases in the intense convection frequency do not necessarily reflect increases in convective available potential energy. The GSRM results are also compared with previously published traditional climate model projections.
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U2 - 10.1029/2022GL099796
DO - 10.1029/2022GL099796
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85137770230
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 49
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 16
M1 - e2022GL099796
ER -