Abstract
The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 12648-12653 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| Volume | 93 |
| Issue number | 22 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Oct 29 1996 |
| Externally published | Yes |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- General
Keywords
- critical community size
- disease eradication
- simulation models
- spatial heterogeneity