Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics

B. M. Bolker, B. T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

123 Scopus citations

Abstract

The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)12648-12653
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume93
Issue number22
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 29 1996
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Keywords

  • critical community size
  • disease eradication
  • simulation models
  • spatial heterogeneity

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