TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability
T2 - A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities
AU - Hatzikyriakou, Adam
AU - Lin, Ning
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by National Science Foundation Grant EAR-1520683 . The authors would like to thank Dr. Andrew Kennedy for providing data from the hydrodynamic simulation of storm surge inundation in Ortley Beach.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2017/2/1
Y1 - 2017/2/1
N2 - Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience.
AB - Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience.
KW - Community resilience
KW - Hurricane Sandy
KW - Performance interdependencies
KW - Residential structures
KW - Storm surge
KW - System reliability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84995395701&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84995395701&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2016.10.011
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2016.10.011
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84995395701
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 158
SP - 106
EP - 116
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
ER -