Human mobility modeling at metropolitan scales

Models of human mobility have broad applicability in fields such as mobile computing, urban planning, and ecology. This paper proposes and evaluates WHERE, a novel approach to modeling how large populations move within different metropolitan areas. WHERE takes as input spatial and temporal probability distributions drawn from empirical data, such as Call Detail Records (CDRs) from a cellular telephone network, and produces synthetic CDRs for a synthetic population. We have validated WHERE against billions of anonymous location samples for hundreds of thousands of phones in the New York and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. We found that WHERE offers significantly higher fidelity than other modeling approaches. For example, daily range of travel statistics fall within one mile of their true values, an improvement of more than 14 times over a Weighted Random Waypoint model. Our modeling techniques and synthetic CDRs can be applied to a wide range of problems while avoiding many of the privacy concerns surrounding real CDRs.