How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels

Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, Emil Verner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand. In this study, we develop a test to determine if the household demand channel is present, and we implement the test using both a natural experiment in the United States in the 1980s and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades. Consistent with the importance of the household demand channel, we find that credit supply expansion boosts nontradable sector employment and the price of nontradable goods, with limited effects on tradable sector employment. Such credit expansions amplify the business cycle and lead to more severe recessions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)949-994
Number of pages46
JournalJournal of Finance
Volume75
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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