How complete are surveys for nearby transiting hot Jupiters?

Samuel W. Yee, Joshua N. Winn, Joel D. Hartman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations


Hot Jupiters are a rare and interesting outcome of planet formation. Although more than 500 hot Jupiters (HJs) are known, most of them were discovered by a heterogeneous collection of surveys with selection biases that are difficult to quantify. Currently, our best knowledge of HJ demographics around FGK stars comes from the sample of ~40 objects detected by the Kepler mission, which have a well-quantified selection function. Using the Kepler results, we simulate the characteristics of the population of nearby transiting HJs. A comparison between the known sample of nearby HJs and simulated magnitude-limited samples leads to four conclusions. (1) The known sample of HJs appears to be ≈75% complete for stars brighter than Gaia G ≲ 10.5, falling to ≲50% for G ≲ 12. (2) There are probably a few undiscovered HJs with host stars brighter than G≈ 10 located within 10° of the Galactic plane. (3) The period and radius distributions of HJs may differ for F-type hosts (which dominate the nearby sample) and G-type hosts (which dominate the Kepler sample). (4) To obtain a magnitude-limited sample of HJs that is larger than the Kepler sample by an order of magnitude, the limiting magnitude should be approximately G≈ 12.5. This magnitude limit is within the range for which NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite can easily detect HJs, presenting the opportunity to greatly expand our knowledge of hot-Jupiter demographics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number240
JournalAstronomical Journal
Issue number6
StatePublished - Dec 1 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Space and Planetary Science


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