Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States

Hanbeen Kim, Gabriele Villarini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Understanding projected changes in flooding across the contiguous United States (CONUS) helps increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against this hazard. Here, we assess future changes in flooding across CONUS using outputs from 28 global climate models and four scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find that CONUS is projected to experience an overall increase in flooding, especially under higher emission scenarios; there are subregional differences, with the Northeast and Southeast (Great Plains of the North and Southwest) showing higher tendency towards increasing (decreasing) flooding due to changes in flood processes at the seasonal scale. Moreover, even though trends may not be detected in the historical period, these projected future trends highlight the current needs for incorporating climate change in the future infrastructure designs and management of the water resources.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number237
JournalNature communications
Volume15
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2024

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Physics and Astronomy
  • General Chemistry
  • General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

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