Has smoking really declined in China?

It has been reported that the prevalence of smoking among Chinese men has decreased substantially in recent decades. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) (1991–2009) and the triple standardization method, we assess this trend and the relative contributions to it from three explanatory factors – age, whether the person has ever smoked, and smoking cessation. Results do show that the prevalence of smoking among Chinese men has decreased noticeably during the study period. Furthermore, the decrease in the proportion of men who have ever smoked is the single most important factor accounting for most of the decline. The contributions of the changes in age structure and in smoking cessation are small. Hence, we conclude that a decline in smoking among Chinese men is a real historical change and not an artefact of the survey methodology or the changes in age structure.