TY - JOUR
T1 - Global multi-model projections of local urban climates
AU - Zhao, Lei
AU - Oleson, Keith
AU - Bou-Zeid, Elie
AU - Krayenhoff, E. Scott
AU - Bray, Andrew
AU - Zhu, Qing
AU - Zheng, Zhonghua
AU - Chen, Chen
AU - Oppenheimer, Michael
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2021/2
Y1 - 2021/2
N2 - Effective urban planning for climate-driven risks relies on robust climate projections specific to built landscapes. Such projections are absent because of a near-universal lack of urban representation in global-scale Earth system models. Here, we combine climate modelling and data-driven approaches to provide global multi-model projections of urban climates over the twenty-first century. The results demonstrate the inter-model robustness of specific levels of urban warming over certain regions under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K—larger than regional warming—by the end of the century, with high inter-model confidence. Our findings highlight the critical need for multi-model global projections of local urban climates for climate-sensitive development and support green infrastructure intervention as an effective means of reducing urban heat stress on large scales.
AB - Effective urban planning for climate-driven risks relies on robust climate projections specific to built landscapes. Such projections are absent because of a near-universal lack of urban representation in global-scale Earth system models. Here, we combine climate modelling and data-driven approaches to provide global multi-model projections of urban climates over the twenty-first century. The results demonstrate the inter-model robustness of specific levels of urban warming over certain regions under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K—larger than regional warming—by the end of the century, with high inter-model confidence. Our findings highlight the critical need for multi-model global projections of local urban climates for climate-sensitive development and support green infrastructure intervention as an effective means of reducing urban heat stress on large scales.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8
DO - 10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85098773969
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 11
SP - 152
EP - 157
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 2
ER -