Global effects of increased taxation of tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages on tax receipts: a modelling analysis

Introduction The taxation of harmful commodities—including tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs)—can reduce avertable health burdens while generating tax revenue to fund key government programmes. These tools are particularly useful in the current environment of constrained global fiscal space but remain underused. Methods We simulated the economic effects of taxing cigarettes, alcohol and SSBs over a 5-year period employing mathematical models informed by global economic and consumption data. Historical trends were used to project baseline consumption trajectories for each commodity. For countries with missing data, price, consumption and tax information were imputed using regional and income group averages, enabling global coverage. Tax-induced price increases of 20% and 50% were simulated. Results Taxes that raise retail prices by 20% would generate US$388.73 billion in additional global tax revenue annually, comprising US$104.20 (95% UI: US$92.70–US$115.48) billion from tobacco, US$202.67 (95% UI: US$191.68–US$213.69) billion from alcohol, and US$81.86 (95% UI: US$68.36–US$94.93) billion from SSBs. At 50%, the total additional revenue would be US$684.75billion annually. As a proportion of health spending, lower-income countries generate more tax revenue than higher-income countries. Conclusion Excise tax increases on tobacco, alcohol and SSBs can raise substantial government revenues, which could enable increased public health and social spending. By providing short-term revenue projections, this study offers timely insights to inform near-term fiscal policy decisions, particularly in low- and middle-income countries facing fiscal constraints. Future research should explore the taxation of related goods, including ultraprocessed foods and e-cigarettes.