Global carbon budget 2019

Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Orothee C.E. DBakker, Josep G. Canadell1, Philippe Ciais1, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni1, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent BoppErik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Shin Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. Van Der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009-2018), EFF was 9:5±0:5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4:9±0:02 GtC yr-1 (2:3±0:01 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN 2:5±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3:2±0:6 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1% and fossil emissions increased to 10:0±0:5 GtC yr-1, reaching 10 GtC yr-1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11:5±0:9 GtC yr-1 (42:5±3:3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5:1±0:2 GtC yr-1 (2:4±0:1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2:6±0:6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3:5±0:7 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407:38±0:1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6-10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of C0:6% (range of.0:2% to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1783-1838
Number of pages56
JournalEarth System Science Data
Volume11
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 4 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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    Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Le Quéré, C., DBakker, O. C. E., Canadell1, J. G., Ciais1, P., Jackson, R. B., Anthoni1, P., Barbero, L., Bastos, A., Bastrikov, V., Becker, M., ... Zaehle, S. (2019). Global carbon budget 2019. Earth System Science Data, 11(4), 1783-1838. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019