Global Carbon Budget 2018

Corinne Quéré; Robbie Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Judith Hauck; Julia Pongratz; Penelope Pickers; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen Peters; Josep Canadell; Almut Arneth; Vivek Arora; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Laurent Bopp; Philippe Ciais; Louise Chini; Philippe Ciais; Scott Doney; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel Goll; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Forrest Hoffman; Mario Hoppema; Richard Houghton; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul Jain; Truls Johannessen; Chris Jones; Etsushi Kato; Ralph Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Sebastian Lienert; Zhu Liu; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; David Munro; Julia Nabel; Shin Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Are Olsen; Tsueno Ono; Prabir Patra; Anna Peregon; Wouter Peters; Philippe Peylin; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Matthias Rocher; Christian Rödenbeck; Ute Schuster; Ingunn Skjelvan; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Tobias Steinhoff; Adrienne Sutton; Pieter Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco Tubiello; Ingrid Van Der Laan-Luijkx; Guido Van Der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony Walker; Andrew Wiltshire; Rebecca Wright; Sönke Zaehle; Bo Zheng

doi:10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Corinne Quéré, Robbie Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen Peters, Josep Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Philippe Ciais, Louise Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott Doney, Thanos GkritzalisDaniel Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David Munro, Julia Nabel, Shin Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Ingunn Skjelvan, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Ingrid Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Guido Van Der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony Walker, Andrew Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, Bo Zheng

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008-2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yrĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yrĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	2141-2194
Number of pages	54
Journal	Earth System Science Data
Volume	10
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
State	Published - Dec 5 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018

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Quéré, C., Andrew, R., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Hauck, J., Pongratz, J., Pickers, P., Ivar Korsbakken, J., Peters, G., Canadell, J., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Barbero, L., Bastos, A., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Chini, L., Ciais, P., Doney, S., ... Zheng, B. (2018). Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data, 10(4), 2141-2194. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018

@article{5b9d3857b08a4fee941af28003a7d0d5,

title = "Global Carbon Budget 2018",

abstract = "Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the {"}global carbon budget{"} - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008-2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yrĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yrĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e} et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).",

author = "Corinne Qu{\'e}r{\'e} and Robbie Andrew and Pierre Friedlingstein and Stephen Sitch and Judith Hauck and Julia Pongratz and Penelope Pickers and {Ivar Korsbakken}, Jan and Glen Peters and Josep Canadell and Almut Arneth and Vivek Arora and Leticia Barbero and Ana Bastos and Laurent Bopp and Philippe Ciais and Louise Chini and Philippe Ciais and Scott Doney and Thanos Gkritzalis and Daniel Goll and Ian Harris and Vanessa Haverd and Forrest Hoffman and Mario Hoppema and Richard Houghton and George Hurtt and Tatiana Ilyina and Atul Jain and Truls Johannessen and Chris Jones and Etsushi Kato and Ralph Keeling and {Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and Peter Landsch{\"u}tzer and Nathalie Lef{\`e}vre and Sebastian Lienert and Zhu Liu and Danica Lombardozzi and Nicolas Metzl and David Munro and Julia Nabel and Nakaoka, {Shin Ichiro} and Craig Neill and Are Olsen and Tsueno Ono and Prabir Patra and Anna Peregon and Wouter Peters and Philippe Peylin and Benjamin Pfeil and Denis Pierrot and Benjamin Poulter and Gregor Rehder and Laure Resplandy and Eddy Robertson and Matthias Rocher and Christian R{\"o}denbeck and Ute Schuster and Ingunn Skjelvan and Roland S{\'e}f{\'e}rian and Ingunn Skjelvan and Tobias Steinhoff and Adrienne Sutton and Pieter Tans and Hanqin Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Francesco Tubiello and {Van Der Laan-Luijkx}, Ingrid and {Van Der Werf}, Guido and Nicolas Viovy and Anthony Walker and Andrew Wiltshire and Rebecca Wright and S{\"o}nke Zaehle and Bo Zheng",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) 2018.",

year = "2018",

month = dec,

day = "5",

doi = "10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "10",

pages = "2141--2194",

journal = "Earth System Science Data",

issn = "1866-3508",

publisher = "Copernicus Publications",

number = "4",

}

Quéré, C, Andrew, R, Friedlingstein, P, Sitch, S, Hauck, J, Pongratz, J, Pickers, P, Ivar Korsbakken, J, Peters, G, Canadell, J, Arneth, A, Arora, V, Barbero, L, Bastos, A, Bopp, L, Ciais, P, Chini, L, Ciais, P, Doney, S, Gkritzalis, T, Goll, D, Harris, I, Haverd, V, Hoffman, F, Hoppema, M, Houghton, R, Hurtt, G, Ilyina, T, Jain, A, Johannessen, T, Jones, C, Kato, E, Keeling, R, Klein Goldewijk, K, Landschützer, P, Lefèvre, N, Lienert, S, Liu, Z, Lombardozzi, D, Metzl, N, Munro, D, Nabel, J, Nakaoka, SI, Neill, C, Olsen, A, Ono, T, Patra, P, Peregon, A, Peters, W, Peylin, P, Pfeil, B, Pierrot, D, Poulter, B, Rehder, G, Resplandy, L, Robertson, E, Rocher, M, Rödenbeck, C, Schuster, U, Skjelvan, I, Séférian, R, Skjelvan, I, Steinhoff, T, Sutton, A, Tans, P, Tian, H, Tilbrook, B, Tubiello, F, Van Der Laan-Luijkx, I, Van Der Werf, G, Viovy, N, Walker, A, Wiltshire, A, Wright, R, Zaehle, S & Zheng, B 2018, 'Global Carbon Budget 2018', Earth System Science Data, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 2141-2194. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global Carbon Budget 2018

AU - Quéré, Corinne

AU - Andrew, Robbie

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - Hauck, Judith

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Pickers, Penelope

AU - Ivar Korsbakken, Jan

AU - Peters, Glen

AU - Canadell, Josep

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Arora, Vivek

AU - Barbero, Leticia

AU - Bastos, Ana

AU - Bopp, Laurent

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Chini, Louise

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Doney, Scott

AU - Gkritzalis, Thanos

AU - Goll, Daniel

AU - Harris, Ian

AU - Haverd, Vanessa

AU - Hoffman, Forrest

AU - Hoppema, Mario

AU - Houghton, Richard

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Ilyina, Tatiana

AU - Jain, Atul

AU - Johannessen, Truls

AU - Jones, Chris

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Keeling, Ralph

AU - Klein Goldewijk, Kees

AU - Landschützer, Peter

AU - Lefèvre, Nathalie

AU - Lienert, Sebastian

AU - Liu, Zhu

AU - Lombardozzi, Danica

AU - Metzl, Nicolas

AU - Munro, David

AU - Nabel, Julia

AU - Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro

AU - Neill, Craig

AU - Olsen, Are

AU - Ono, Tsueno

AU - Patra, Prabir

AU - Peregon, Anna

AU - Peters, Wouter

AU - Peylin, Philippe

AU - Pfeil, Benjamin

AU - Pierrot, Denis

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Rehder, Gregor

AU - Resplandy, Laure

AU - Robertson, Eddy

AU - Rocher, Matthias

AU - Rödenbeck, Christian

AU - Schuster, Ute

AU - Skjelvan, Ingunn

AU - Séférian, Roland

AU - Skjelvan, Ingunn

AU - Steinhoff, Tobias

AU - Sutton, Adrienne

AU - Tans, Pieter

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Tilbrook, Bronte

AU - Tubiello, Francesco

AU - Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid

AU - Van Der Werf, Guido

AU - Viovy, Nicolas

AU - Walker, Anthony

AU - Wiltshire, Andrew

AU - Wright, Rebecca

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

AU - Zheng, Bo

PY - 2018/12/5

Y1 - 2018/12/5

N2 - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008-2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yrĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yrĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

AB - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008-2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yrĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yrĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85058075362&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85058075362&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018

DO - 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85058075362

SN - 1866-3508

VL - 10

SP - 2141

EP - 2194

JO - Earth System Science Data

JF - Earth System Science Data

IS - 4

ER -

Global Carbon Budget 2018

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